发展中国家应该拥抱核能吗？

A combination of factors appears to be pushing the risk-benefit balance back into nuclear’s favour as an energy option for developing countries. SciDev.Net readers are invited to comment.

Shortly before last week’s summit meeting in Russia, the media suggested the G8 nations would endorse a global plan to promote nuclear energy, on the grounds that it is needed to meet energy demands in developed and developing countries alike.

The reports quoted a late draft of a position paper on energy security submitted to the summit. This is said to have proposed that developing countries participate in a global "shared nuclear energy system" as "a viable option for reducing their energy poverty and bridging the energy gap." Among its specific recommendations was a call to build a new generation of so-called fast neutron breeder reactors, able to generate (or ‘breed’) their own plutonium supply from natural uranium.

Predictably, these reports provoked strong opposition. Critics repeated their concern that nuclear power is simply too dangerous — a poignant argument in the country where the world’s worst nuclear accident, the explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, happened exactly 20 years ago.

共同担心的政府，例如德国和意大利，似乎在圣彼得堡赢得了胜利。尽管其他领导人可能支持该职位论文草案，但在峰会的最终文件中没有提及全球核能计划。

内华达州ertheless, two decades after the Chernobyl accident made nuclear energy a pariah in much of the international development community, the arguments about its exclusion are being revisited.

新的压力

Several factors now favour nuclear energy, in both the developed and the developing world. One is that whatever their attraction, renewable energy sources, such as biogas or even solar, are unlikely to meet the energy demands of the world’s rapidly growing urban population.

根据一个估计，从现在到2050年，居住在城市的人数可能会翻一番，达到75亿，而农村人口的数量可能从3亿到25亿。替代性可再生燃料不太可能能够应对集中式能源系统的应变。

第二个主要因素是应对气候变化的需求。放慢全球变暖的唯一现实机会是大幅度减少碳排放。正如核工业已经指出了几年，核能是一种明显的方法。

In the long-term, the world needs to turn towards low-energy economies based on renewable energy such as wind, biomass and solar energy, and perhaps with the addition of fusion energy, if that can be made safe and economic. But too rapid a transition could bring energy shortages that disrupt industry and have a devastating social impact.

This prediction is behind the UK government’s new energy policy paper, published last week. The paper concludes that expanding nuclear energy is an essential component of any strategy capable of combating global warming while continuing to meet the country’s energy needs.

A third factor is the evolution of nuclear technology itself. No one is claiming that nuclear power is 100 per cent safe. But new technological advances and new reactor designs have both reduced the likelihood of accidents and bolstered our ability to deal with any that do occur.

Continuing concerns

这并不是自满的理由的dangers of nuclear energy. Many questions remain over how to secure its benefits while reducing its risks to a socially acceptable level.

也许最重要的是，国际社会必须确保不会将核物质转向军事目的。

伊朗继续决心重新处理核燃料 - 迈向建造核武器的一步，使问题更加相关（见Iran’s nuclear standoff: we need a peaceful solution).

The G8 reinforced the importance of nuclear non-proliferation policies. But countries that already possess large nuclear arsenals have failed to convince sceptics that they are reining in their nuclear plans. And the perception that nuclear weapons are restricted to a rich man’s club makes it difficult to persuade other countries to relinquish their own ambitions.

另一个问题是是否可以安全地处理放射性废物。但是这个问题已经进行了多年的仔细研究，尽管尚未找到完美的解决方案，但现在可以使用几种可行的替代方案，例如深层存储。

Hidden agendas

Underlying the whole nuclear debate, even in the civilian domain, is a concern that those promoting nuclear energy for the developing world are doing so primarily for their own economic and political reasons, rather than a genuine commitment to meet the needs of developing country as those countries perceive them.

As long as nuclear power is seen as a device by which the technologically powerful can control and exploit those who lack such power, the nuclear debate will be riddled with distrust.

例如，普京总统在今年早些时候提出的关于满足发展中国家需求的浮动核电站提出的提议被广泛认为是由于渴望利用其国家的核专业知识的愿望，并这样做以扩大其国际影响力。

But where nuclear technology is integrated into energy policies that are driven by actual needs, and where these policies make appropriate use of a wide range of energy sources, including renewables, there is no inherent reason why developing countries should exclude nuclear from their choices.

Just one of many options

The arguments for bringing nuclear energy in from the cold have become powerful. Technical factors, such as future energy demand, the problems of global warming, and the increased safety of new nuclear technologies, appear to be pushing the risk-benefit balance back into nuclear’s favour.

But the social and political challenges remain, and these will not be solved by focusing on nuclear energy alone. While there is no reason for excluding nuclear technology, it’s also not the only solution. Each energy technology should be assessed on its own merits.

Developing countries need to build skills and expertise in a range of energy technologies so they can choose which best addresses their needs. Countries that develop this capacity will be best placed to meet their own energy needs on their own terms.

David Dickson
Director, SciDev.Net

阅读有关全球能源安全的G8文件

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