非洲分析：气候变化是小农的痛苦

Experts use many numbers when talking about气候变化。但是，对于数百万小农户来说，温度升高，最重要和最紧迫的发展是数百万户家庭的生计和贫困的衰退和贫困农民整个非洲农业生态景观。

To illustrate the unfolding crisis, let us consider the case of Malawi, one of the few countries to have achieved a fair deal ofagricultural成功，但现在正面临worst drought在三十多年来。与南部非洲的许多国家一样，马拉维由于厄尔尼诺现象的毁灭性强大而经历了广泛的作物失败。该国目睹了今年的降雨，不稳定的降雨，洪水和长时间的干咒。

Thus, the production of maize — the country’s main staple crop — is estimated at just over 2.5 million tonnes in 2016. [1]This is 16 per cent lower than the reduced harvest in 2015 and 34 per cent below the previous five‑year average. Consequently, 39 per cent of the population are dependant on national and international food aid to survive — a 129 per cent increase over last year’s vulnerable population. In the hardest hit areas, harvest reduced by 70 per cent while farmers in some areas simply couldn’t plant as the rains never came. [2]

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应对气候变化

Dealing with this challenge in the future will require both efforts to reduce气候变化而且，最重要的是，使农民适应其影响的策略。

所有人的目光都注视着世界气候变化专家的会议和policymakers上个月（11月7日至18日）在摩洛哥马拉喀什结束。这次会议试图使全世界有望减少导致气候变化的温室气体排放。

去年，同一位专家在法国巴黎开会，并达成了一项欢迎协议，该协议旨在将全球温度的升高限制在工业前水平以上的升高两度。但是，温室气体的排放尚未下降，气候变化的影响正在恶化。仍需要做更多的事情来积极应对这一挑战。

其他地方是必要的行动更加紧迫than in Africa, where about 70 per cent of the population is dependent on rain-fed, smallholder agriculture. As the case of Malawi shows, rising temperatures in Africa often signal drought and other extreme weather events that put the lives and livelihoods of smallholder farmers at greater risk, increasing their vulnerability to famine anddiseases。今天，这个现实与我们同在，远远超出了马拉维和南部非洲，目前在历史干旱的束缚下，大陆的大片占地。

“我希望世界领导人抓住这一时刻采取行动，并继续使我们走上一个更美好的未来的道路。”

艾格尼丝·卡利巴塔（Agnes Kalibata）, AGRA

For this reason, those of us from the African continent hope that such a backdrop gave the first post-Paris meeting a greater sense of urgency. Inaction would be catastrophic. Although Africa emits less than three per cent of the climate change inducing greenhouse gases, it will suffer its effects disproportionately. Mean temperatures will rise faster than the global average, exceed two degrees Celsius and may reach as high as three to six degrees Celsius by 2100. [3] For every year that our global leaders fail to make progress against their commitments, it is Africa’s families that will pay the greatest price.

不仅仅是全球领导人的努力

这并不是要把一切都留在全球领导人的手中，因为非洲的繁荣及其繁荣农民will also depend on how well farmers, especially smallholders, are able to adapt to the changing climate. This is much more within our control.

的确，阿格拉（农业绿色革命联盟）的工作表明，面对气候变化，非洲农民并非无能为力。beplay下载官网西西软件尽管在增长条件下发生了巨大变化，但它们可以通过许多方式生存甚至繁荣。

例如，马拉维某些地区的农民正在种植更多的耐旱作物 - 卡萨瓦，甘薯和鸽子豌豆，并且使用更好的农业习俗不仅能幸免于干旱，而且他们期望在今年的今年获得良好的收入收成。

保险和金融部门也通过设计来提高盘子创新的最小化气候冲击对农民的影响的产品。

Still in Malawi, tens of thousands of farmers in the worst hit areas south of the country will now have access to credit from a microfinance institution that has protected these loans with a yield insurance that covers the crops against the impact of floods and drought.

需要主动适应计划

总体而实现食品安全在气候变化下，需要通过积极主动和长期适应行动来加强社区和个体农民的韧性。尽管尚未完成更多工作，但该大陆已经投资于许多新的农业创新和采用beplay下载官网西西软件技术应该扩大规模。

我们不能对减轻气候变化和适应气候变化的进一步采取行动，而没有期望小农户和世界各地的其他人更大的痛苦。从马拉喀什（Marrakesh）到所有国家的首都和全球决策桌，我希望世界领导人抓住了采取行动的时刻，并继续使我们走上一个更美好的未来的道路。

Let us hope for a future when African smallholder farmers can fully exploit their potential to deliver food security, contribute to poverty reduction and achieve inclusive economic growth and development.

艾格尼丝·卡利巴塔（Agnes Kalibata）is the president of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA). Follow her on Twitter: @Agnes_Kalibata

这件作品由Scidev.net的撒哈拉以南非洲英语桌子制作。