27/07/20

Ethiopia dam filling impact ‘limited’ – if no drought

GERD filled - MAIN
大埃塞俄比亚文艺复兴时期大坝的首次填充完成了。数据分析表明,埃及不会受到大坝填充的第一阶段的严重影响。版权:Hailefida,,,,(CC BY-SA 4.0)

速度阅读

  • 埃塞俄比亚完成了大坝填充时间表的第一阶段
  • Downstream Sudan, Egypt fear floods, droughts
  • Technical negotiations over filling, operation to continue

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[CAIRO] Egypt’s Nile river water supply will only be threatened by the filling of the upstream Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the case of prolonged drought, new analysis suggests.

大坝以及关于其填充和未来运作的持续谈判引发了埃塞俄比亚和下游州苏丹和埃及之间的冲突,他们说他们担心巨大的蓝色尼罗河水力发电大坝可能会交替造成其国家的水短缺和洪水。

Data analysis shows that Egypt will not be severely affected by the first stage of the filling of the dam, says Peter Hany, a professor of irrigation and hydraulics at Egypt’s Ain Shams University.

“在大量的水或突然的洪水中,需要大量水释放,苏丹大坝可能不会承受这种压力和崩溃。”

埃及国家水研究中心Mohamed Dawoud

但是,汉尼警告说,埃及在尼罗河水域的份额下降了50亿立方米 - 约占埃及所说的最低需求的12.5% - 可能导致损失42,000公顷的农业土地。

最近的大雨意味着filling is already complete,,,,Ethiopia’s Prime Minister said after an extraordinary meeting between the three states last week (21 July).

Sudan reported last week that it had recorded a significant drop in water levels along its sections of the Nile.

非洲联盟召集了峰会,以努力进行停滞的政治,法律和技术谈判,并为大坝达成全面的运营协议。

汉尼说,今年开始填充过程,而不是明年,这是更好的选择,因为目前在埃及纳赛尔湖的水位很高,该水位从尼罗河填充,并为农业和能源生产提供水。beplay下载官网西西软件

东部尼罗河地区的地图,有水库地点。
东部尼罗河地区的地图,有水库地点。信用:Wheeler et al. 2016

由于一系列的谈判开始了12月的谈判,但埃塞俄比亚一直在推动为期四年的时间表以加快其能源生产的速度。

Seleshi Bekele, Ethiopia’s water, irrigation and energy minister, has said the release of water will remain above the historical 29 billion cubic metre flow. Egypt wants Ethiopia to commit to a minimum 40 billion cubic metres of water.

“按照这个时间表,可能的范围water release is between 31 and 43 billion cubic meters during the seven years, at 80 per cent probability,” Bekele told a virtual seminar held by the Ethiopian Embassy in South Africa on June 27.

汉尼告诉汉尼说:“时间表清楚地显示了填充模式,其中包括六个阶段,其中最后一个阶段估计为140亿立方米。”scidev.net

Hany used this data to create a mathematical model to determine the impact that filling Ethiopia’s reservoir would have on Egypt’s Aswan High Dam and the water level in its reservoir, Lake Nasser.

Hany found that if the schedule is maintained, the impact during filling would be limited, except in the event of periods of prolonged drought.

The Nile river states agreed at the非凡的会议将科学和技术谈判与政治和法律问题分开。日期尚未供将来的会议,该会议将由非洲联盟主持。

苏丹还说,这也是从水力发电结构的下游,它担心埃塞俄比亚的大坝会影响其自己的水力发电装置。尼罗河国家沿其长度建造了一系列水坝(称为级联的大坝或水库),并且由上游大坝引起的河流波动波动可能对下游大坝产生重大影响。

Sudan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Yasir Abbas, has said he feared a lack of coordination and data exchange from Ethiopia.

埃及国家水研究中心水资源教授穆罕默德·达沃德(Mohamed Dawoud)表示,在没有约束力协议的情况下,苏丹的大坝有受到严重损害的风险。

“苏丹大坝相对较小,”达沃德告诉scidev.net。"In the case of an abundance of water, or a sudden flood that necessitates the release of large quantities of water, it is possible that the Sudanese dams will not bear this pressure and collapse."

beplay足球体育的微博乌普萨拉大学国际水合作研究学院的环境冲突专家Ashok Swain说,非洲联盟最适合在尼罗河谈判中扮演调解员的角色。

“Any agreement is better than no agreement, as no one is expecting a comprehensive basin-based water resource development agreement taking place among the three riparian countries soon,” Swain says.

这件作品由Scidev.net的中东和北非桌子生产。