Disturb forests, trigger new pandemics — study

[马尼拉]埃博拉，萨尔斯和艾滋病毒等动物来源的covid-19和其他动物疾病的出现表明，令人不安的森林可以触发大流行病。学习，强调大趋势塑造森林的未来。

而确切的起源COVID-19are yet to be determined, the virus has demonstrated the devastating social and economic significance of pandemics, and also highlighted a “crucial aspect of the linkages between human–forest relations and global change”, says the study published 30 November inNature Plants.

“Halting and reversing forest loss is increasingly recognised as a means to mitigate the effects of climate change and address biodiversity collapses”

曼彻斯特大学约翰·奥德科普（Johan Oldekop）

FAOsState of the World’s Forests Report 2020says that the majority of new infectiousdiseases是人畜共患病，它们的出现可能与变化有关forestareas, as well as the expansion of human populations into forest areas.

根据这项研究，森林社区前往城市地区的前所未有的外流正在塑造森林的未来。作为例子，该研究引用了国际如何migration正在帮助尼泊尔的造林，改变墨西哥的社区森林管理机构，并从菲律宾的商品作物单一灌木丛中驱动转变。

Land cleared in East Kalimantan in Indonesia for an oil palm plantation. Image credit:Mokhamad Edliadi/Cifor（CC BY-NC-ND 2.0）。

A megatrend affecting forests is the growth in numbers of the middle class in low- and middle-income countries, which by 2030 may reach five billion people. This large population, around half of the projected global populace, will spur local and global consumption and increase pressure on land and other resources. Growing consumption and demand has already seen large-scale, corporate-led land acquisitions for industrial production of cattle, soy and palm oil in South-East Asia, Latin America and Africa. According to the study, during 2001—2015, 27 per cent of forest disturbance was attributed to commodity-driven deforestation.

While the growth in availability of digitaltechnologies, including land mapping tools and real-time satellite数据can benefit a wide range of stakeholders, including土著Peoples interested in protecting their forests and livelihoods, the new technologies can also aid those involved in illicit activities, says the study.

“Halting and reversing forest loss is increasingly recognised as a means to mitigate the effects of气候变化and address生物多样性崩溃，”约翰·奥德科普（Johan Oldekop），副教授University of Manchester这项研究的主要作者告诉SciDev.Net。“我们需要了解森林和每个依赖森林的未来挑战和机遇。”

基础设施增长以适应对18beplay ,自然l resources and运输is putting pressures on forests. By 2050, says the study, there will be at least 25 million kilometres of new roads to facilitate global commodity flows.政府in the Amazon basin alone are developing 246 new hydroelectric dams while illegal mining activities, mostly located in forested areas, are expanding rapidly.

Megatrends identified in the study are “exceptionally large in geographical extent and magnitude, and are difficult to reverse”,劳拉·冯·拉斯穆森（Laura Vang Rasmussen），助理教授哥本哈根大学, and co-author of the report, tellsSciDev.Net。“They, thus, require cross-national responses and better monitoring and evaluation programmes to understand local effects.”

“The authors correctly point out that data limitations are an issue, especially socio-economic and demographic data,” notes Douglas Muchoney, head of FAO’s Geospatial Unit.

“An issue is spatially-disaggregating statistical data from national to sub-national scales,” Muchoney tellsSciDev.Net。他说，另一个是“缺乏对入侵物种对森林健康，结构和功能的严重有害影响”。

Oldekop表明积极的最大化本efits of megatrends identified in the study and minimise their negative effects, it would help to provide rights to land and resources to local communities and help sustain and improve livelihoods and conserve forests.

他补充说：“当地社区必须对与森林保护和森林恢复有关的国际和国家反应至关重要。”

This piece was produced by SciDev.Net’s Asia & Pacific desk.