Climate change ‘likely’ to cut tropics crop diseases

Climate change is likely to kill back some crop diseases in tropical countries of the global South, with the disease risks instead rising in more northerly regions such as Europe and China, a study says.

但是，根据这项研究published this week（8月5日）Nature Climate Change。

多年来，植物有害生物和疾病爆发导致了巨大的粮食短缺和饥荒killing millions。

埃克塞特大学研究的作者托马斯·查洛纳（Thomas Chaloner）说：“植物病原体已经在全球范围内威胁着农业生产，我们需要为这些威胁将来如何改变。”parent organisationscidev.net。

The researchers from the UK and Netherlands looked at 80 fungus-like diseases affecting crops.

他们使用农作物和气候模型，分析了当前的（2011-2030）的产量和未来（2061-80）的收益预测，包括小麦，玉米，甘蔗，小米和大豆。

研究表明，在热带国家climate changewill decrease the yields of several crops, despite leading to a decline in crop disease.

“This is because temperatures will become too high for both the crops and their pathogens,” explained Dan Bebber, an author of the study and associate professor of ecology at the University of Exeter, UK.

The researchers predicted that, over the 21st century at lower latitudes, reductions may be seen in the yields of millet, maize and sugar cane but these crops will face a decreased risk from a number of infections.

In tropical areas, there will be little gain in yields of wheat, sunflower and soybean, but again the risk from various temperature-dependent pathogens will be less.

“For farmers in the tropics, breeding of crops for high temperature tolerance is important, as well as management to help crops deal with high temperatures, such as irrigation,” added Bebber.

研究说，考虑到没有提供灌溉的情况，预计拉丁美洲的玉米收益率（阿根廷除外）以及非洲和北部的澳大利亚。

巴西和其他拉丁美洲国家以及东南亚的甘蔗生产率也预计也有所下降。

研究人员预测，欧洲和中国患温度依赖性感染的风险有所增加，但印度，巴西，撒哈拉以南非洲和东南亚国家有所下降。

However, Bebber struck a note of caution about the crop disease projections. “First, we did not investigate all known pathogens due to a lack of relevantdata，特别是对于热带病原体。其次……病原体可能演变为应对更高的温度。”他说。

Jonathan Casey, climate change manager at CABI, says the research demonstrates that climate change impacts all aspects of crop production, and will significantly change the pest and disease threats faced by farmers.

“These findings can help inform early warning and early action for farmers in affected regions — particularly in more northern regions — to take timely action to adapt to the increased pressures brought about by climate change,” said Casey.

“尽管气候变化是全球现象，但它是我mpacts are not felt equally across the globe”

印度Azim Premji大学气候研究员Koteswararao Kundeti

Koteswararao Kundeti, a climate researcher at the Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability at Azim Premji University, in Bangalore, India, said: “Though climate change is a worldwide phenomenon, its impacts are not felt equally across the globe.

“尤其是在热带之间的大多数发展中国家易受伤害的气候变化。全球气候模型的预测表明，我们需要为极端天气条件做准备，并在高层地区进行干旱，大雨和风暴农业production.”

This piece was produced by SciDev.Net’s Global desk.