20/11/12
Early warning of disasters: Facts and figures
经过：Lucy Pearson
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Early warning of disasters: Facts and figures
经过：Lucy Pearson
Lucy Pearsonlooks at early warning systems for disasters, their uses and limits, and what accounts for the gap between warning and action.
通过历史，灾难破坏了生命和生计，杀死人，并破坏了房屋和企业。在过去的35年中，灾难估计造成了250万人的生命，其成本超过15亿美元，主要是在发展中国家。[1]
自然和生物学危害（例如，洪水或传染病）以及复杂的社会政治紧急情况和工业危害（干旱或放射性泄漏）造成的灾难。
危害造成的损害的程度不仅与其严重程度有关，还与居住在易灾难地区的人们准备和抵抗的能力有关。因此，减少灾害风险的努力部分集中在开发预警系统上，以提供及时有效的信息，使人们和社区在灾难发生时能够做出反应。
Early warning systems are combinations of tools and processes embedded within institutional structures, coordinated by international — and sometimes national — agencies. Whether they focus on one particular hazard or many, these systems are composed of four elements: knowledge of the risk, a technical monitoring and warning service, dissemination of meaningful warnings to at-risk people, and public awareness and preparedness to act. Warning services lie at the core of these systems, and how well they operate depends on having a sound scientific basis for predicting and forecasting, and the capability to run reliably 24 hours a day.
Scientific and technological advances (Box 1) have driven marked improvements in the quality, timeliness and lead time of hazard warnings, and in the operation of integrated observation networks. But advances in technology alone are not enough — and in some cases they can even create obstacles to the capacity of vulnerable populations to respond.
方框1：用于监视和警告的技术
Forecasting and modelling technology
Several countries have early warning systems based on seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. [2] These systems are based on using monitoring data, including temperature and rainfall values, and state-of-the art climate models. Climatologists analyse the observations and model-based predictions to predict climate anomalies one or two seasons ahead.
Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) applications
遥感和GIS应用具有明显的高级饥荒预警系统。开发资源映射的区域中心（RCMRD）一直在使用remote sensing-based regionalearly warningsystems forfood securityto supplement national initiatives in eastern African countries. RCMRD predicts harvests half way through thegrowing season在赛季结束前提前警告粮食安全。此外，洪水监测现在通过遥感经常告知，这些遥感获取有关土壤类型，水资源，定居点，裁剪区和森林的信息。
Satellite communication technology
Improvements in satellite communication have helped decrease the lag time between data collection and warning. For example, the Pacific Tsunami Warning System works by a recorder on the seabed relaying data on anomalies to a buoy on the surface. This data is then transmitted via satellite to ground stations every 15 seconds.
手机技术
With the global spread of mobile phones and networks, this technology is now increasingly used to communicate warnings and coordinate preparation activities — particularly SMS alerts for disseminating mass messages. For example, upon detection of p-waves that precede earthquake shaking, Japanese agencies send out SMS alerts to all registered mobile phones in the country. However, some obstacles can arise with this technology — phone pylons can be damaged or networks can be overburdened during hazards, for example.
ICTs for crowdsourcing
“众包”数据的使用正在通过提高互联网连接以及信息和通信技术（ICT）（例如手机）的使用而获得吸引力。众包被广泛用于对2010年海地地震的反应，允许当地人，绘制专家和其他利益相关者传达他们在地面上看到和听到的东西，并产生人道主义工人可以使用的信息。这在找到需要帮助的幸存者方面特别有用，但是越来越多地认识到，众包也可以帮助进行污点前活动，特别是风险识别和预警。
危机制图
通过USHAHIDI和Google危机响应等举措，危机制图利用众包以及卫星图像，参与式地图和统计模型来为更明智和有效的预警提供动力。它可以在不确定性和混乱时期提供有关即将到来的危机的实时信息。可以通过利益相关者网络（例如危机映射者）网络来分析这些系统可以生产的大量数据。
预警系统：它们有什么好处？
Early warning systems are increasingly considered to be an integral component of disaster preparedness and involve a broad spectrum of actors. Figure 1 shows just some of the key events in the development of such systems.
图1：预警系统开发的关键事件(click for full image)
But early warning systems do not exist in every part of the world. A quarter of the countries assessed in the 2011 Global Assessment Report for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that communities did not receive any timely warnings for impending hazards. [4]
And while some early warning systems are better than others, existing ones are still in need of improvement. Discussions on how to improve effectiveness can be informed by critical analyses to determine what early warning can realistically achieve, and what is outside its limitations (Box 2).
Box 2: What can we expect of early warning systems?
预警可以挽救生命
Several countries have significantly reduced deaths by developing effective early warning systems. Cuba's Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System is credited with reducing deaths dramatically for weather related hazards such as tropical cyclones, storm surges and related flooding: five successive flooding events left only seven dead. [5] Another example is Bangladesh, which now has a 48-hour early warning system in place that allows people to evacuate to safe shelters hours before cyclones make landfall, reducing deaths. In 1970, 300,000 died as a result of Cyclone Bhola, compared to 3,000 in 2007 during Cyclone Sidr, which authorities were able to track as it grew in strength.
…but cannot prevent all damage
虽然一旦收到警告，可以在地方层面上完成一定数量，以保护生命和生计，但在突然的灾难中保护基础设施几乎无法做到这一点 - 财务造成的财务损失以及服务中断和服务中断。。但是，在可能提前几天或几个月的较慢的发病灾害中，预警系统可以提供足够的时间来进行降低风险措施，例如改造建筑物和建造障碍。
Early warning can help in many types of hazard
警告系统已经到位，事实证明对各种危害有益。以海啸为例，日本东北的2011年地震和海啸中显示了国际协调系统的好处，威胁着许多太平洋岛屿：警告比2004年的印度洋海啸中的灾难性的时间更为协调人们撤离高空。
Having an impact is more difficult for systems set up to warn of hazards that have complex causes, such as drought. However, some countries have developed systems capable of integrating information from various sources and providing warnings of the imminent onset of drought. And early warning systems for food security have developed significantly over the past few years. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) is the most globally complete food security monitoring system.
。..但是在地质危险方面受到限制
有时可以在早期阶段检测到即将发生的火山喷发或滑坡的迹象，并用于警告。大多数地震区域都安装了区域监测系统，并存在跨国公司（例如，研究所Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam的Geofon网络）。但是，拾起地震前体很难，常规预测仍然难以捉摸：无法预测地震发生的位置，大小和时间。
然而，即使是几秒钟的交货时间也可以有所作为，一些国家正在处理有限的信息。例如，在墨西哥城，技术系统可以在地震开始之后识别出可能发生的第一个地震浪潮，这可能会发生超过100公里的地方，从而使当局可以使用此信息关闭关键系统，例如天然气供应线。
警告和注意之间的差距
但是，提高预警系统的有效性本身并不会导致易灾难性社区的风险降低 - 除非提前采取（早期）行动，否则预警几乎没有好处。
Warnings are still not effectively communicated, and not sufficiently acted upon, even as agencies in developed and developing countries are now more aware of the nature, frequency, locations and intensity of various hazard types, and have advanced technical capabilities for monitoring such as climate models and remote sensing. [3, 4]
一个很好的例子是历史上最具破坏性的灾难之一，即2004年印度洋海啸。夏威夷的太平洋海啸警告中心占据了地震。但是，尽管该中心在印度尼西亚和泰国等国家打了电话，但紧急基础设施却丢失了，因此警告没有传播给当地社区。[6]
Warnings of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami were not disseminated to local communities due to a lack of emergency infrastructure.
Flickr/ simminch
So what accounts for the gap between early warning and response? Identifying the factors that contribute can help countries and the international community to find ways to address them.
Understanding uncertainties
The uncertainty inherent in scientific information is one of the reasons for failing to act on disaster warnings. Information from forecasts is often in a language and format that is not easily understood by humanitarian workers or the local communities that need it. Scientific jargon relating to uncertainty regularly causes users not to act.
Statements such as "there is a 20 per cent chance that rainfall will be above the interannual mean" present information in an unfamiliar language.
However, uncertainty does not have to be a reason for inaction. Two-way exchanges of information can mitigate misunderstanding and help scientists and users of scientific information to appreciate each other's 'language', their respective objectives, and how they might best work together to prepare for a disaster (Box 3). [7]
Box 3: The need to understand uncertainty
In 2011 the Humanitarian Futures Programme conducted research on the use of climate science in informing livelihood decision making in the context of seasonal flood and drought conditions in Kenya. [8] It found that although the Kenyan Meteorological Department had been generating useful and relevant information for crop and livestock producers, it was not in a form that they could understand. Questionnaires also indicated that the community had a high level of mistrust towards the agency, largely because it had previously produced predictions that did not materialise. A lack of understanding of the uncertainty of estimations led people to interpret the predictions as wrong, and to believe that estimations could no longer be trusted.
Prioritising risks
Another reason for inaction is that the warnings tend not to reflect an understanding of the decisions people then need to make in response. In developing countries, this means getting a handle on the well-established link between disasters and poverty. For example, a farmer may stay looking after their cattle rather than evacuate because they judge the risk of flood to be lower than the risk of losing their livelihood.
Communicators of early warnings can work more effectively by taking into account how people behave in that crucial period after they receive a warning — particularly how they prioritise different risks. Assessing behaviour after disasters can help to clarify who does and does not heed warnings, and why.
Reducing false alarms
As early warning systems grow in geographical coverage and sophistication, false alarms are rising too. While some believe that they provide invaluable practice, high false alarm rates can undermine public confidence, breed mistrust, dilute the impact of alerts and reduce the credibility of future warnings.
In 2007, a local tsunami alarm was raised mistakenly in Aceh, Indonesia, causing mass panic and injury as residents fled. Anger led residents to later disable the tsunami warning system, causing unnecessary vulnerabilities and long-term risk. And this year, an earthquake measuring 8.7 on the Richter Scale, which hit off the coast of Indonesia, led to the activation of the Pacific Tsunami Early Warning System; but there were no significant tsunamis, and the likelihood of a tsunami was judged to be low based on the characteristics of the earthquake.
One approach to reducing false alarms is to use reliable local hazard indicators, such as animal behaviour or vegetation changes, to verify scientific indicators of upcoming hazards. Another approach is to work with the media to avoid inaccurate, exaggerated or misleading information about potential events.
广播、电视、手机短信和电子邮件是美国ed to communicate warnings but there is insufficient follow up on what works.
Flickr/ Internewseurope
Monitoring communication tools
Innovative ICTs are being developed and rolled out, playing an important role in disseminating information to organisations in charge of responding to warnings and to the public during a disaster. But their capacity to make an impact is limited by the lack of systematic and consistent monitoring.
Web服务，SMS和电子邮件以及广播和电视等更具成熟的技术都被用来通信警告。但是，这些工具是在不同的位置和不同情况下创建和部署的，并且不足以对什么和行不通。
For example, television is not always effective in the most at-risk communities due to mistrust. If follow-up does take place, it often fails to monitor effectiveness over both the short and long term, or may raise questions over reliability if undertaken by the organisation that has implemented it.
Coordinating response
Finally, insufficient coordination and collaboration between organisations can hold back efforts to encourage early action because the organisations that produce warnings are not those that disseminate them. For example, in the case of hurricanes, the World Meteorological Organization collects atmospheric data which are then transmitted to the US National Hurricane Centre, which generates forecasts and hurricane advice.
然后，通过全球电信系统，传真和互联网向有风险的国家 /地区的国家气象和水文服务传达该建议，国家预测者使用它们来发出特定的飓风警告。然后，这些被派遣的Tolocal报纸，广播和电视台，紧急服务和其他用户。
但是，组织和国家内机构之间的沟通机制有限。并且有具有重叠授权的机构；例如，地方农业机构和气候变化部都可以将其视为向社区传达洪水警告的责任，而单独的警告可能会引起混乱。
危害不遵守国家或地区的领土边界。随着危害暴露区域由于气候变化的扩大，信息的共享将变得越来越重要。更好的沟通渠道和创建一个权威语音的链接政策可以帮助解决这个问题。
Serving communities
气候变化意味着发展的不断变化的需求ping countries and their capacity to respond to disasters. Shifting rainfall patterns and hurricane paths, and more days of extreme temperature, will bring new hazards to areas that previously may not have experienced them. [9] In addition, settlements and services are expanding into at-risk locations as urbanisation intensifies along the coasts, increasing exposure to hazards (Figure 2).
图2：大型沿海城市将看到人口增长与快速城市化相符（单击以获取完整图像）
如果预警系统以及支持它们的技术和工具 - 如果它们嵌入，可以理解并与其所服务的社区相关，则它们的效果最佳。[10]这将具有特殊的价值，社区不能依靠政府有效做出反应。
And there is a need for local knowledge and practices to be integrated with those of the science community, to improve forecasts and increase acceptance, ownership and sustainability of early warning systems. The UNISDR's Hyogo Framework for Action emphasises the importance of encouraging the use of traditional knowledge.
这个想法是，当地的实践和科学实践可以补充而不是彼此，因为每个人都有自己的优势和限制。例如，在所罗门群岛中，在蒂科皮亚岛的早期警告的通讯中发生了整合，在2002年12月，只有少数居民收到了即将到来的飓风的澳大利亚无线电传输警告（科学方法）。方法）然后接管了本地跑步者，以本地语言将消息传递给其他社区成员。[11，12]
但是没有imple way to improve early warning systems. Their impact will be maximised only when all necessary steps are taken to enhance the effectiveness of technological tools and scientific forecasts that governments and communities rely on, providing more time for appropriate action.
露西皮尔森是随着ch coordinator at the Humanitarian Futures Programme, King's College London, andprogramme coordinator at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center in Thailand. Lucy can be contacted atemail@lucypearson.net
This article is part of aSpotlightonImproving early warning of disasters。
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Lucy Pearsonlooks at early warning systems for disasters, their uses and limits, and what accounts for the gap between warning and action.
通过历史，灾难破坏了生命和生计，杀死人，并破坏了房屋和企业。在过去的35年中，灾难估计造成了250万人的生命，其成本超过15亿美元，主要是在发展中国家。[1]
自然和生物学危害（例如，洪水或传染病）以及复杂的社会政治紧急情况和工业危害（干旱或放射性泄漏）造成的灾难。
危害造成的损害的程度不仅与其严重程度有关，还与居住在易灾难地区的人们准备和抵抗的能力有关。因此，减少灾害风险的努力部分集中在开发预警系统上，以提供及时有效的信息，使人们和社区在灾难发生时能够做出反应。
Early warning systems are combinations of tools and processes embedded within institutional structures, coordinated by international — and sometimes national — agencies. Whether they focus on one particular hazard or many, these systems are composed of four elements: knowledge of the risk, a technical monitoring and warning service, dissemination of meaningful warnings to at-risk people, and public awareness and preparedness to act. Warning services lie at the core of these systems, and how well they operate depends on having a sound scientific basis for predicting and forecasting, and the capability to run reliably 24 hours a day.
Scientific and technological advances (Box 1) have driven marked improvements in the quality, timeliness and lead time of hazard warnings, and in the operation of integrated observation networks. But advances in technology alone are not enough — and in some cases they can even create obstacles to the capacity of vulnerable populations to respond.
方框1：用于监视和警告的技术
Forecasting and modelling technology
Several countries have early warning systems based on seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. [2] These systems are based on using monitoring data, including temperature and rainfall values, and state-of-the art climate models. Climatologists analyse the observations and model-based predictions to predict climate anomalies one or two seasons ahead.
Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) applications
遥感和GIS应用具有明显的高级饥荒预警系统。开发资源映射的区域中心（RCMRD）一直在使用remote sensing-based regionalearly warningsystems forfood securityto supplement national initiatives in eastern African countries. RCMRD predicts harvests half way through thegrowing season在赛季结束前提前警告粮食安全。此外，洪水监测现在通过遥感经常告知，这些遥感获取有关土壤类型，水资源，定居点，裁剪区和森林的信息。
Satellite communication technology
Improvements in satellite communication have helped decrease the lag time between data collection and warning. For example, the Pacific Tsunami Warning System works by a recorder on the seabed relaying data on anomalies to a buoy on the surface. This data is then transmitted via satellite to ground stations every 15 seconds.
手机技术
With the global spread of mobile phones and networks, this technology is now increasingly used to communicate warnings and coordinate preparation activities — particularly SMS alerts for disseminating mass messages. For example, upon detection of p-waves that precede earthquake shaking, Japanese agencies send out SMS alerts to all registered mobile phones in the country. However, some obstacles can arise with this technology — phone pylons can be damaged or networks can be overburdened during hazards, for example.
ICTs for crowdsourcing
“众包”数据的使用正在通过提高互联网连接以及信息和通信技术（ICT）（例如手机）的使用而获得吸引力。众包被广泛用于对2010年海地地震的反应，允许当地人，绘制专家和其他利益相关者传达他们在地面上看到和听到的东西，并产生人道主义工人可以使用的信息。这在找到需要帮助的幸存者方面特别有用，但是越来越多地认识到，众包也可以帮助进行污点前活动，特别是风险识别和预警。
危机制图
通过USHAHIDI和Google危机响应等举措，危机制图利用众包以及卫星图像，参与式地图和统计模型来为更明智和有效的预警提供动力。它可以在不确定性和混乱时期提供有关即将到来的危机的实时信息。可以通过利益相关者网络（例如危机映射者）网络来分析这些系统可以生产的大量数据。
预警系统：它们有什么好处？
Early warning systems are increasingly considered to be an integral component of disaster preparedness and involve a broad spectrum of actors. Figure 1 shows just some of the key events in the development of such systems.
图1：预警系统开发的关键事件(click for full image)
But early warning systems do not exist in every part of the world. A quarter of the countries assessed in the 2011 Global Assessment Report for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that communities did not receive any timely warnings for impending hazards. [4]
And while some early warning systems are better than others, existing ones are still in need of improvement. Discussions on how to improve effectiveness can be informed by critical analyses to determine what early warning can realistically achieve, and what is outside its limitations (Box 2).
Box 2: What can we expect of early warning systems?
预警可以挽救生命
Several countries have significantly reduced deaths by developing effective early warning systems. Cuba's Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System is credited with reducing deaths dramatically for weather related hazards such as tropical cyclones, storm surges and related flooding: five successive flooding events left only seven dead. [5] Another example is Bangladesh, which now has a 48-hour early warning system in place that allows people to evacuate to safe shelters hours before cyclones make landfall, reducing deaths. In 1970, 300,000 died as a result of Cyclone Bhola, compared to 3,000 in 2007 during Cyclone Sidr, which authorities were able to track as it grew in strength.
…but cannot prevent all damage
虽然一旦收到警告，可以在地方层面上完成一定数量，以保护生命和生计，但在突然的灾难中保护基础设施几乎无法做到这一点 - 财务造成的财务损失以及服务中断和服务中断。。但是，在可能提前几天或几个月的较慢的发病灾害中，预警系统可以提供足够的时间来进行降低风险措施，例如改造建筑物和建造障碍。
Early warning can help in many types of hazard
警告系统已经到位，事实证明对各种危害有益。以海啸为例，日本东北的2011年地震和海啸中显示了国际协调系统的好处，威胁着许多太平洋岛屿：警告比2004年的印度洋海啸中的灾难性的时间更为协调人们撤离高空。
Having an impact is more difficult for systems set up to warn of hazards that have complex causes, such as drought. However, some countries have developed systems capable of integrating information from various sources and providing warnings of the imminent onset of drought. And early warning systems for food security have developed significantly over the past few years. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) is the most globally complete food security monitoring system.
。..但是在地质危险方面受到限制
有时可以在早期阶段检测到即将发生的火山喷发或滑坡的迹象，并用于警告。大多数地震区域都安装了区域监测系统，并存在跨国公司（例如，研究所Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam的Geofon网络）。但是，拾起地震前体很难，常规预测仍然难以捉摸：无法预测地震发生的位置，大小和时间。
然而，即使是几秒钟的交货时间也可以有所作为，一些国家正在处理有限的信息。例如，在墨西哥城，技术系统可以在地震开始之后识别出可能发生的第一个地震浪潮，这可能会发生超过100公里的地方，从而使当局可以使用此信息关闭关键系统，例如天然气供应线。
警告和注意之间的差距
但是，提高预警系统的有效性本身并不会导致易灾难性社区的风险降低 - 除非提前采取（早期）行动，否则预警几乎没有好处。
Warnings are still not effectively communicated, and not sufficiently acted upon, even as agencies in developed and developing countries are now more aware of the nature, frequency, locations and intensity of various hazard types, and have advanced technical capabilities for monitoring such as climate models and remote sensing. [3, 4]
一个很好的例子是历史上最具破坏性的灾难之一，即2004年印度洋海啸。夏威夷的太平洋海啸警告中心占据了地震。但是，尽管该中心在印度尼西亚和泰国等国家打了电话，但紧急基础设施却丢失了，因此警告没有传播给当地社区。[6]
Warnings of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami were not disseminated to local communities due to a lack of emergency infrastructure.
Flickr/ simminch
So what accounts for the gap between early warning and response? Identifying the factors that contribute can help countries and the international community to find ways to address them.
Understanding uncertainties
The uncertainty inherent in scientific information is one of the reasons for failing to act on disaster warnings. Information from forecasts is often in a language and format that is not easily understood by humanitarian workers or the local communities that need it. Scientific jargon relating to uncertainty regularly causes users not to act.
Statements such as "there is a 20 per cent chance that rainfall will be above the interannual mean" present information in an unfamiliar language.
However, uncertainty does not have to be a reason for inaction. Two-way exchanges of information can mitigate misunderstanding and help scientists and users of scientific information to appreciate each other's 'language', their respective objectives, and how they might best work together to prepare for a disaster (Box 3). [7]
Box 3: The need to understand uncertainty
In 2011 the Humanitarian Futures Programme conducted research on the use of climate science in informing livelihood decision making in the context of seasonal flood and drought conditions in Kenya. [8] It found that although the Kenyan Meteorological Department had been generating useful and relevant information for crop and livestock producers, it was not in a form that they could understand. Questionnaires also indicated that the community had a high level of mistrust towards the agency, largely because it had previously produced predictions that did not materialise. A lack of understanding of the uncertainty of estimations led people to interpret the predictions as wrong, and to believe that estimations could no longer be trusted.
Prioritising risks
Another reason for inaction is that the warnings tend not to reflect an understanding of the decisions people then need to make in response. In developing countries, this means getting a handle on the well-established link between disasters and poverty. For example, a farmer may stay looking after their cattle rather than evacuate because they judge the risk of flood to be lower than the risk of losing their livelihood.
Communicators of early warnings can work more effectively by taking into account how people behave in that crucial period after they receive a warning — particularly how they prioritise different risks. Assessing behaviour after disasters can help to clarify who does and does not heed warnings, and why.
Reducing false alarms
As early warning systems grow in geographical coverage and sophistication, false alarms are rising too. While some believe that they provide invaluable practice, high false alarm rates can undermine public confidence, breed mistrust, dilute the impact of alerts and reduce the credibility of future warnings.
In 2007, a local tsunami alarm was raised mistakenly in Aceh, Indonesia, causing mass panic and injury as residents fled. Anger led residents to later disable the tsunami warning system, causing unnecessary vulnerabilities and long-term risk. And this year, an earthquake measuring 8.7 on the Richter Scale, which hit off the coast of Indonesia, led to the activation of the Pacific Tsunami Early Warning System; but there were no significant tsunamis, and the likelihood of a tsunami was judged to be low based on the characteristics of the earthquake.
One approach to reducing false alarms is to use reliable local hazard indicators, such as animal behaviour or vegetation changes, to verify scientific indicators of upcoming hazards. Another approach is to work with the media to avoid inaccurate, exaggerated or misleading information about potential events.
广播、电视、手机短信和电子邮件是美国ed to communicate warnings but there is insufficient follow up on what works.
Flickr/ Internewseurope
Monitoring communication tools
Innovative ICTs are being developed and rolled out, playing an important role in disseminating information to organisations in charge of responding to warnings and to the public during a disaster. But their capacity to make an impact is limited by the lack of systematic and consistent monitoring.
Web服务，SMS和电子邮件以及广播和电视等更具成熟的技术都被用来通信警告。但是，这些工具是在不同的位置和不同情况下创建和部署的，并且不足以对什么和行不通。
For example, television is not always effective in the most at-risk communities due to mistrust. If follow-up does take place, it often fails to monitor effectiveness over both the short and long term, or may raise questions over reliability if undertaken by the organisation that has implemented it.
Coordinating response
Finally, insufficient coordination and collaboration between organisations can hold back efforts to encourage early action because the organisations that produce warnings are not those that disseminate them. For example, in the case of hurricanes, the World Meteorological Organization collects atmospheric data which are then transmitted to the US National Hurricane Centre, which generates forecasts and hurricane advice.
然后，通过全球电信系统，传真和互联网向有风险的国家 /地区的国家气象和水文服务传达该建议，国家预测者使用它们来发出特定的飓风警告。然后，这些被派遣的Tolocal报纸，广播和电视台，紧急服务和其他用户。
但是，组织和国家内机构之间的沟通机制有限。并且有具有重叠授权的机构；例如，地方农业机构和气候变化部都可以将其视为向社区传达洪水警告的责任，而单独的警告可能会引起混乱。
危害不遵守国家或地区的领土边界。随着危害暴露区域由于气候变化的扩大，信息的共享将变得越来越重要。更好的沟通渠道和创建一个权威语音的链接政策可以帮助解决这个问题。
Serving communities
气候变化意味着发展的不断变化的需求ping countries and their capacity to respond to disasters. Shifting rainfall patterns and hurricane paths, and more days of extreme temperature, will bring new hazards to areas that previously may not have experienced them. [9] In addition, settlements and services are expanding into at-risk locations as urbanisation intensifies along the coasts, increasing exposure to hazards (Figure 2).
图2：大型沿海城市将看到人口增长与快速城市化相符（单击以获取完整图像）
如果预警系统以及支持它们的技术和工具 - 如果它们嵌入，可以理解并与其所服务的社区相关，则它们的效果最佳。[10]这将具有特殊的价值，社区不能依靠政府有效做出反应。
And there is a need for local knowledge and practices to be integrated with those of the science community, to improve forecasts and increase acceptance, ownership and sustainability of early warning systems. The UNISDR's Hyogo Framework for Action emphasises the importance of encouraging the use of traditional knowledge.
这个想法是，当地的实践和科学实践可以补充而不是彼此，因为每个人都有自己的优势和限制。例如，在所罗门群岛中，在蒂科皮亚岛的早期警告的通讯中发生了整合，在2002年12月，只有少数居民收到了即将到来的飓风的澳大利亚无线电传输警告（科学方法）。方法）然后接管了本地跑步者，以本地语言将消息传递给其他社区成员。[11，12]
但是没有imple way to improve early warning systems. Their impact will be maximised only when all necessary steps are taken to enhance the effectiveness of technological tools and scientific forecasts that governments and communities rely on, providing more time for appropriate action.
露西皮尔森是随着ch coordinator at the Humanitarian Futures Programme, King's College London, andprogramme coordinator at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center in Thailand. Lucy can be contacted atemail@lucypearson.net
This article is part of aSpotlightonImproving early warning of disasters。
References
[1]Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction（UNISDR，2009年）
[2] Ogallo，L。，et al。适应气候变化和变化：气候前景论坛流程[837kB].BAMS57，93–102（2008）
[3]开发预警系统：清单。第三届国际预警会议的报告(Report, UNISDR, 2006)
[4]Global Assessment Report for Disaster Risk Reduction。(Report, UNISDR, 2011)
[5] Rogers, D. and V. Tsirkunov.预警系统的成本和收益[549KB]（UNISDR的论文，2011年）
[6]Kettlewell, J.预警技术 - 足够吗？（BBC，2008年）
[7] HFP Futures GroupMaking Space for Science – Humanitarian Policy Dialogue: Unlocking the Potential for Effective Crisis Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Emergency Recovery(Humanitarian Futures Programme, 2011)
[8]Report of the Exchange Team visit to Nairobi and Arusha(Humanitarian Futures Programme, 2011)
[9]Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation(IPCC, 2011)
[10]预警 - 早期动作[727kB] (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2008)
[11]维多利亚，L。P。在达加彭城市洪水警告系统中结合土著和科学知识inIndigenous Knowledge for Disaster Risk Reduction: Good Practices and Lessons Learned from Experiences in the Asia-Pacific Region（Unisdr，2008）
[12] McAdoo，B。G.et al。Indigenous Knowledge Saved Lives during 2007 Solomon Islands TsunamiinIndigenous Knowledge for Disaster Risk Reduction: Good Practices and Lessons Learned from Experiences in the Asia-Pacific Region（Unisdr，2008）
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