21/07/06

发展中国家应该拥抱核能吗?

核设施安全工人版权所有:美国DOE

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A combination of factors appears to be pushing the risk-benefit balance back into nuclear’s favour as an energy option for developing countries. SciDev.Net readers are invited to comment.

上周在俄罗斯举行的峰会会议之前不久,媒体建议,八国集团将认可促进核能的全球计划,理由是满足发达国家和发展中国家的能源需求。

The reports quoted a late draft of a position paper on energy security submitted to the summit. This is said to have proposed that developing countries participate in a global "shared nuclear energy system" as "a viable option for reducing their energy poverty and bridging the energy gap." Among its specific recommendations was a call to build a new generation of so-called fast neutron breeder reactors, able to generate (or ‘breed’) their own plutonium supply from natural uranium.

Predictably, these reports provoked strong opposition. Critics repeated their concern that nuclear power is simply too dangerous — a poignant argument in the country where the world’s worst nuclear accident, the explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, happened exactly 20 years ago.

分享这些担忧的政府,例如德国和意大利,似乎在圣彼得堡赢得了这一天。尽管其他领导人可能支持该立场文件草案,但在峰会的最终文件中没有提及全球核能计划。

然而,在切尔诺贝利事故使核能成为国际发展界的贱民之后的二十年,就其排斥的论点正在重新审视。

新的压力

Several factors now favour nuclear energy, in both the developed and the developing world. One is that whatever their attraction, renewable energy sources, such as biogas or even solar, are unlikely to meet the energy demands of the world’s rapidly growing urban population.

根据一项估计,从现在到2050年,居住在城市的人数可能会翻一番,达到75亿,而农村人口的数量可能从3亿到25亿。替代性可再生燃料不太可能能够应对集中式能源系统的应变。

第二个主要因素是应对气候变化。放慢全球变暖的唯一现实机会是大幅度减少碳排放。正如核工业已经指出了几年,核能是一种明显的方法。

从长远来看,世界需要基于风能,生物质和太阳能等可再生能源,以及增加融合能量的融合能量,即使这可以使这可以使安全和经济化。但是,过渡太快会带来破坏行业并产生毁灭性社会影响的能源短缺。

这个预测是英国政府的新energy policy paper, published last week. The paper concludes that expanding nuclear energy is an essential component of any strategy capable of combating global warming while continuing to meet the country’s energy needs.

第三个因素是核技术本身的发展。没有人声称核电是100%安全的。但是,新的技术进步和新的反应堆设计既减少了事故的可能性,又增强了我们处理任何确实发生的能力。

Continuing concerns

None of this is reason for complacency about the dangers of nuclear energy. Many questions remain over how to secure its benefits while reducing its risks to a socially acceptable level.

也许最重要的是,国际社会必须确保不会将核物质转向军事目的。

伊朗继续决心重新处理核燃料 - 迈向建造核武器的一步,使问题更加相关(见Iran’s nuclear standoff: we need a peaceful solution).

G8加强了核不扩散政策的重要性。但是,已经拥有大型核武库的国家未能说服怀疑论者,他们正在核计划中。并且对核武器仅限于一个有钱人俱乐部的看法使得很难说服其他国家放弃自己的野心。

另一个问题是是否可以安全地处理放射性废物。但是这个问题已经进行了多年的仔细研究,尽管尚未找到完美的解决方案,但现在可以使用多种可行的替代方案,例如深层存储。

隐藏的议程

即使在平民领域,整个核辩论的基础也令人担忧的是,那些为发展中国家促进核能的人主要是出于自己的经济和政治原因,而不是真正承诺满足发展中国家的需求各国感知他们。

只要将核能视为一种技术强大的能力,可以控制和利用缺乏这种权力的人,核辩论就会被不信任束缚。

例如,普京总统在今年早些时候提出的关于满足发展中国家需求的浮动核电站提出的提议被广泛认为是由于渴望利用其国家的核专业知识的愿望,并这样做以扩大其国际影响力。

但是,如果核技术被整合到由实际需求驱动的能源政策中,并且这些政策适当利用包括可再生能源在内的广泛的能源,则没有固有的理由使发展中国家应将核排除在其选择之外。

只是众多选择之一

从寒冷中引入核能的论点变得有力。Technical factors, such as future energy demand, the problems of global warming, and the increased safety of new nuclear technologies, appear to be pushing the risk-benefit balance back into nuclear’s favour.

But the social and political challenges remain, and these will not be solved by focusing on nuclear energy alone. While there is no reason for excluding nuclear technology, it’s also not the only solution. Each energy technology should be assessed on its own merits.

发展中国家需要在各种能源技术中建立技能和专业知识,以便他们可以选择最能满足其需求的方法。发展这种能力的国家将最适合按照自己的条件满足自己的能源需求。

David Dickson
Director, SciDev.Net

阅读有关全球能源安全的G8文档

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